Thinking About Brooks Koepka and the Majors
Just how much do the big ones matter?
Two weeks out from the U.S. Open in Los Angeles, it is hard not to anticipate how Brooks Koepka will perform there. If club pro Michael Block was the feel-good centerpiece of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club earlier this month, a victorious Koepka was the polished, sturdy table on which it sat as he bagged his fifth major.
The win came on the heels of a tie for second at the Masters and made Koepka just the 20th man with five or more professional major-championship titles. Moreover, Koepka is only the third golfer in that small fraternity to be a major champion in the 21st century, along with Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.
Regardless of what the future holds, Koepka is in the golf stratosphere not terribly long after a serious knee problem jeopardized his career. Having just turned 33 years old and being highly motivated to achieve major success, Koepka should have plenty of chances to climb the ladder of the greats.
Pete Cowen, the experienced Englishman who is one of Koepka’s coaches, is bullish on what might come next—and it’s hard to argue with him. “He will win a lot more,” Cowen told Ewan Murray of The Guardian after Koepka’s victory at Oak Hill. “I certainly think he will go another four and he would obviously like a Grand Slam. Look at how many times he has been second or just missed out already. I thought he was an unbelievable player in 2018-2019, and he has got stronger.”
Four more major titles would lift Koepka into a tie for fourth all-time with Ben Hogan and Gary Player in a measurement of modern major achievement, behind only Jack Nicklaus (18 wins), Woods (15) and Walter Hagen (11).
Koepka’s handful of victories has come in 36 major starts, the same pace as Sam Snead, who was 39 years old when he won the 1951 PGA and would go on to win two more big ones. Fourteen players won five professional majors as currently defined (U.S. Open, Open Championship, PGA, Masters) faster: Harry Vardon (12 starts), Bobby Jones (13), James Braid (16), Hagen (18), Nicklaus (21), J.H. Taylor and Woods (22), Arnold Palmer (23), Byron Nelson (25), Lee Trevino (26), Hogan and Peter Thomson (27), Gene Sarazen (29) and Tom Watson (31).
Koepka can be heartened by the fact that Mickelson didn’t win the first of his half-dozen majors until he was 33 and didn’t capture No. 5 until his 84th start. The half-empty perspective: Sports timelines can be fickle: Seve Ballesteros won his final major at 31, Watson at 33 (although it’s hard not to give him partial credit for finishing second at The Open Championship when he was 59!), Palmer at 34. Rory McIlroy won four majors by age 25 but is in his ninth year of searching for his fifth, an unforeseen and puzzling drought.
What opens the spigot to major success? The combination of power and touch is a potent blend for sure, but Player, Sarazen, Trevino and Nick Faldo, to name four Hall of Famers, weren’t known for their strength. Koepka certainly possesses both qualities, and the former was key when he strayed from the fairway at Oak Hill, where the rough was penal.
But those who thrive in majors—Koepka has nine top-five finishes in addition to his victories—do so because of something else. They want to be there. Verve (vigor and spirit or enthusiasm) and nerve (steadiness, courage and sense of purpose when facing a demanding situation) go a long way toward describing the winning formula. Given that the matter at hand is a sport, not real life, substitute “tenacity” for “courage” and those twin attributes nail what is necessary to thrive under major pressure. Not everyone has them or can attain them.
Despite all the money that is out there—in LIV Golf, where Koepka now plays, on the PGA Tour, his former home, and the financial windfall available from the majors themselves—the big ones are more than ever about achievement not compensation, about something shiny instead of something spendable. Not that long ago, a major payday (and subsequent off-course opportunities) was a life-changer. Now, when stars already are financially plump, winning is about enhancing reputations, standing out from a sated crowd.
Among the men Koepka joined in the top 20 major winners—those who competed regularly on pro tours in the United States or elsewhere—he is a distinct outlier. For most of them, major victories were a fraction of their overall titles. Koepka has had more success in majors than elsewhere, with four non-major victories on the PGA Tour, four on the Challenge Tour, two on the Japan Tour and in LIV Golf, and one on the DP World Tour (not counting those that are included in his PGA Tour total).
Will Koepka’s non-major record be a consideration when assessing his place in the game? If the majors keep adding up, that will be the math that matters most.
Every time I read or remember Seve won his last major at 31 I shake my head. Hard to believe and a little sad. As a kid I thought he'd been around forever and would never stop winning. But really his major-winning period was like a piece of magnesium set alight by your chemistry teacher - the brightest flash you'll see but quickly fizzles and vanishes.
Impossible to predict where Koepka goes from here. He seems a little injury-prone and fatherhood might be a factor someday. But right now, I think he starts majors as the favorite.